Trade fraud is killing the cedi

By Michael Kofi Fosu

In the early months of 2026, Ghana’s economy feels like a patient on life support—stable on the surface, but weakened by an unseen internal bleed. The Bank of Ghana has done what central banks do best in moments of stress: intervene decisively. With Gross International Reserves of about US$11.4 billion, equivalent to 4.8 months of import cover, and monthly foreign exchange injections of up to US$1 billion, the cedi has been shielded from wild swings.

Yet beneath this apparent calm lies a deeper problem that no amount of dollar “pumping” can cure. Ghana has lost control of its trade flows, and until that changes, lasting currency stability will remain elusive.

The figure of 4.8 months of import cover, impressive as it sounds, is itself misleading. Ghana currently lacks an accurate record of what it truly imports. Rampant under-invoicing at the ports means the country is effectively managing its reserves in the dark.

The quiet drain on the economy

At the heart of Ghana’s currency instability is trade misinvoicing—especially import under-invoicing—which experts estimate accounts for up to 90 per cent of government revenue losses at ports of entry. Over the past decade, billions of cedis have leaked out of the system through trade-related illicit financial flows.

The numbers tell a sobering story. In 2024 alone, imports valued at GH¢204 billion entered the country, yet only GH¢85 billion was declared taxable. This gap is not a statistical error; it is a structural failure.

For importers, the incentive is clear. With duties and levies that can exceed 50 per cent of the value of goods, under-declaring invoices has become a survival tactic. But what benefits a few businesses quietly punishes the entire economy.

Under-invoicing does not only deprive the state of revenue. It blinds the Bank of Ghana. When importers hide the true value of what they bring in, the real demand for foreign exchange disappears from official records. Today, an estimated 70 per cent of import payments are made outside the regulated banking system, often through fintech platforms and black-market channels. The result is predictable: pressure on the cedi, uncertainty in the market and a central bank forced to fight shadows.

Seeing the Problem Before It Reaches the Port

The solution is not to ban fintechs or stifle trade. Ghana needs visibility, not restriction—and it needs it upstream.

Trade professionals, including those at ITFP Ghana, are proposing a technology-driven invoice registration system that tackles the problem at its source. Under this framework, every import invoice would be registered and digitally hashed before any payment, financing or clearance occurs. That single step creates a trusted “source of truth” for banks, fintechs, customs and regulators alike.

The logic is simple and powerful:

No Invoice ID, no foreign exchange. No finance. No clearance

By shifting enforcement from the port—where it is reactive and often too late—to the payment stage, the system stops illicit funds before they ever leave the country. Fake, duplicated or “fresh air” invoices are blocked upstream, not argued over at the docks.

A revenue revolution waiting to happen

The macroeconomic benefits of fixing under-invoicing are enormous. If Ghana captures the true value of its imports, revenue at the ports could increase fourfold. That expanded fiscal space would allow government to do something long overdue: reduce excessive import taxes without sacrificing income.

Lower duties would ease consumer prices, reduce the incentive to cheat the system and cut down smuggling. Just as importantly, compliant local manufacturers would no longer be punished for playing by the rules. When every importer pays the correct duty, domestic producers finally compete on a level field, boosting local production and reducing Ghana’s dependence on imports.

A narrow window of opportunity

For now, Ghana has breathing room. Strong gold export earnings—over US$20 billion in 2025—have underpinned a measure of stability, giving the Bank of Ghana valuable intervention capacity. But this window will not stay open forever. As the IMF programme winds down towards the end of 2026, the economy must transition from central bank-led support to genuine, market-driven stability.

That transition will fail unless trade is brought under control.

True currency stability does not begin at the port of entry. It begins at the point where goods are procured, priced and paid for. When Ghana ensures that trade data is accurate, transparent and verifiable, the foreign exchange market will finally reflect reality.

Building trust through digital public infrastructure

The broader lesson extends beyond Ghana. In a world of complex supply chains and instant cross-border payments, digital public infrastructure is no longer optional. It is essential.

Well-designed digital systems bring visibility, traceability and trust to trade and finance. Technologies such as blockchain create tamper-proof records that reduce fraud and misinvoicing. Digital identity frameworks verify who is trading and paying, lowering counterparty risk and opening doors for small and medium-sized enterprises to participate safely in global markets. Automated compliance tools help businesses navigate international rules without costly delays or guesswork.

For Ghana, investing in such infrastructure is not a technological luxury; it is an economic necessity.

The verdict is clear. Ghana will not stabilise the cedi by chasing dollars after they have vanished offshore.

Stability will come when the country ensures that the currency follows the trade. And that journey starts with transparency at the source, not excuses at the port.

The writer is the CEO, ITFP

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