Mahama’s ‘Big Push’ numbers do not add up -INSTEPR

A leading energy and fiscal research institution has cast serious doubt on the financial viability of President John Dramani Mahama’s flagship ‘Big Push’ infrastructure initiative, warning that the government’s own revenue figures make the four year timeline for funding the programme virtually impossible, without resorting to debt.

Kwadwo Poku, Director of the Institute for Energy Policies and Research, known as INSTEPR, says the numbers behind the National Democratic Congress manifesto promise to spend US$10 billion on infrastructure within four years, simply do not support the President’s assertion that the initiative would be financed solely from internally generated funds.

“The numbers do not add up, from the revenue data available to us, the only way to pay for the Big Push is through debt, if all contractors are to be paid for work done at the end of 2027,” he said.

The controversy traces back to a meeting between the President and members of the Public Interest and Accountability Committee on July12, 2025 during which President Mahama identified petroleum revenue and mineral royalties as the primary sources of funding for the initiative. It is a claim that INSTEPR’s figures struggle to support.

Drawing on data from the Bank of Ghana’s Ghana Petroleum Funds semi-annual reports and the Minerals Income Investment Fund annual revenue figures, Poku notes that the total petroleum revenue accumulated over fifteen years, from 2011 to date, stands at just US$11.58 billion. That figure, covering a decade and a half of production, is only marginally above the amount the government intends to spend in four years.

The breakdown for 2025 is equally instructive. Total petroleum revenue for the year was US$770.27 million.

However, under the Petroleum Revenue Management Act, only the portion accruing to the Consolidated Fund and the Annual Budget Funding Amount can lawfully be deployed by government for infrastructure and that figure amounts to US$433.29 million.
On the mineral royalties side, MIIF received a record GHc5.43 billion in 2025, equivalent to approximately US$517.14 million at the prevailing exchange rate.

Following a legislative amendment requiring 80 percent of MIIF revenues to be transferred to the Consolidated Fund for infrastructure, the effective contribution to the Big Push from this source stands at US$413.7 million.

Combined, the two designated funding streams generated US$846.9 million in 2025. At that rate, Mr Poku calculates it would take Ghana more than eleven years to accumulate the US$10 billion required, more than double the length of a single presidential term.

The institute’s concern is sharpened by the pace at which contracts are already being awarded. The Roads Minister has confirmed that over US$7 billion worth of contracts were issued through single sourced procurement on grounds of urgency, with completion targeted for the end of 2027.

The Director of the INSTEPR is now asking the government to explain how the GHc46 billion allocated across the 2025 and 2026 budgets, equivalent to approximately US$4.4 billion, is being financed.

He is also pressing for clarity on how government intends to raise over US$3 billion in 2027 alone to settle contractors upon completion of the 81 urgent road contracts.

INSTEPR stopped short of a categorical conclusion, but called for deeper interrogation of the policy, stating that whether the President’s no borrowing assurance holds true remains, on current evidence, an open question.

The presidency had not responded to the institute’s findings at the time of publication.

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