2024 election-related jitters exerted pressure on Cedi – Addison

Governor of the Bank of Ghana (BoG), Dr Ernest Addison, has highlighted that the Cedi came under intermittent pressures during the first three quarters of the 2024 year, but regained some value in the last quarter of the year.

He explained that increased demand for foreign exchange to support energy related payments, uncertainty around timelines on the conclusion of the external bond restructuring, uncertainties around COCOBOD financing arrangements, and election-related jitters exerted pressure on the currency.

By the end of the third quarter, he said, the currency had depreciated by 24.8 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

Addressing the 122nd Moneyray Policy Committee (MPC)Press conference in Accra on Monday Janury 27, he said “In the last quarter, commercial banks’ participation in the gold purchase programme for foreign currency, positive sentiments from the progress made in the debt restructuring, and continued tight liquidity management caused the currency to appreciate. By the end of the year, the currency had
depreciated by 19.0 percent against the US dollar.”

Regarding Ghana’s banking sector, Dr Ernest Addison further said the sector continues to remain profitable and well-capitalised.

“The banking sector continues to be profitable, well-capitalized and liquid. Assets of the
banking sector grew by 33.8 percent in 2024. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) with reliefs grew
marginally to 14.0 percent in December 2024 from 13.9 percent in December 2023,” he said.

However, he added, CAR without reliefs rose to 11.3 percent in December 2024, higher than the 8.3 percent recorded in December 2023.

Profits went up in 2024 relative to 2023, but the pace of growth slowed, resulting in the moderation of profitability indicators during the period. In the outlook elevated credit risk remained the main upside risk to the banking sector.

The industry’s Non-Performing Loans (NPL) ratio increased to 21.8 percent in December 2024, up from 20.6 percent in December 2023.

The resilience of the banking sector in 2024 was supported by improved domestic macroeconomic conditions.

The MPC maintained the Policy Rate at 27 per cent.

The Committee noted that global economic conditions broadly improved in 2024. Global inflationary pressures have gradually eased over the period, which has led to easing monetary policy stance across several countries.

Consequently, Dr Addison said global financial conditions are expected to ease gradually as policy stances become more accommodative and inflation targets in Advanced Economies are met and expectations anchored. These conditions are expected to result in improvements in investor sentiments towards emerging market and developing economies.

On top of the projected steady growth for 2025, the international markets have priced in a much stronger US economy stemming from the policies to be implemented by the new US administration.

“This has already instigated a stronger US dollar with implications for emerging markets and developing economies, including Ghana. Complementary fiscal and monetary policies will therefore have to be carefully set to prevent spillovers to the Ghanaian economy,” he stated.

On the external sector conditions, he said they remain positive, with sustained and stronger-than-programmed rebuilding of reserve buffers contributing to the stability of the domestic currency. The
performance of the external sector was mainly driven by strong growth in gold exports, which also
largely impacted positively on growth.

In the outlook, the external sector is expected to remain strong as commodity prices remain favourable amid improvements in production. Overall, while the external sector conditions are expected to provide an anchor to exchange rate stability, key risks in the outlook including challenges in the energy sector will have to be closely monitored.

The stronger-than-projected growth and generally improved macroeconomic conditions are spilling over positively to the banking sector. To sustain this effort, the Bank of Ghana will continue to ensure that banks with capital gaps adhere to their committed recapitalisation plans to shore up solvency. Supervisory activities will be intensified to ensure that banks continue to address the high
NPLs, which poses potential risks to the stability of the industry.

The improvement in domestic macroeconomic conditions is also expected to bolster debt servicing capabilities of corporate and household sectors, which would help mitigate further build-up of NPLs within the industry.

The inflation profile remains elevated, largely driven by food price movements, especially in the last quarter of the year. The climate-related factors including the dry spell in some parts of the
food-growing regions of the country and the late onset of rains, negatively affected production, while
supply chain weaknesses generally affected food prices.

While the inflation outturn for the year 2024 deviated from target, it is expected that the disinflation process will resume, contingent on renewed efforts at fiscal consolidation, which is anticipated in the new administration’s economic policy agenda and the yet-to-be-presented 2025 budget statement. The Bank’s latest inflation forecast shows a steady decline and return to the path of disinflation, with an extended time horizon of achieving the mediumterm target of 8±2 percent.

“Under the circumstances, the Committee decided to keep the monetary policy rate unchanged at
27 percent,” Dr Addison said.

 

 

 

 

 

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